Powerful Questions

Causality or correlation?

Over the generations we have been rewarded for quick, simple pattern matching - something drops out of a tree, assume it is a snake and run. If you are wrong and it was a vine or branch, no harm done.

But this also leads to reading far more into some patterns than is reasonable. In a pinch we tend to see causality rather than take the time to realize it is just correlation we are witnessing.

There are lots of great examples, and I highly recommend the 2015 book and ongoing webpage Spurious Correlations by Tyler Vigen.

While the graphs line up (correlation) it is clear to see there is no causality. Here are just two of many, many examples:

• The Elijah Wood Effect: A Cinematic Correlation to Orderly Occupation in Oklahoma
• The Dirty Laundry of Travel Aspirations: Exploring the Relationship between US Household Spending on Cleaning Supplies and Google Searches for 'Flights to Antarctica'

These are entertaining and obvious, but remember our brains have evolved to see these sorts of patterns, so it is important to keep asking yourself:

Are you confusing correlation with causation?

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